Apr 24, 2024

By Jeffrey H. Michaels

Self-deterrence is critically understudied in deterrence theory. Similarly, deterrence practitioners prefer to focus on adversaries’ threats rather than seeking to account for the full scope of fears influencing the decision calculus of policymakers. Through historical case studies, this article identifies where self-deterrence has occurred, highlights the benefits of incorporating the concept in future strategic planning and intelligence assessments, and recommends that policymakers, strategists, and analysts acknowledge self-deterrence as an important factor when preparing for future wars.

Apr 24, 2024

By Dr. Jared M. McKinney, Dr. Peter Harris, Col. Rich D. Butler, Josh Arostegui

The likelihood China will attack Taiwan in the next decade is high and will continue to be so, unless Taipei and Washington take urgent steps to restore deterrence across the Taiwan Strait. This monograph introduces the concept of interlocking deterrents, explains why deterrents lose their potency with the passage of time, and provides concrete recommendations

Apr 19, 2024

Foreign Service officer and US Army War College professor Christopher Sandrolini calls this anthology, which contextualizes the defense budget within federal spending, a “well-organized and lucid practical introduction to working within the confines of a bureaucracy.” He highlights and distills Bryant and Troutman’s main arguments, noting, “[m]astering these rules [of bureaucracy] is essential to turn strategies and policies ...

Apr 19, 2024

Rodger M. Kissane provides a thoughtful review of this important book on “bridging and even transcending generational differences” in the US military. Kissane highlights author Corie Weathers’s “insightful . . . recognition that each generation imprints itself upon the institution in ways that reflect their life experiences.” He also outlines the book’s relevance to leaders in that Weathers addresses “ ...

Apr 18, 2024

In a world where technology is rapidly advancing and available to the masses, companies and policymakers face a daunting reality—non-state actors are using innovation for sinister purposes. While artificial intelligence (AI) and autonomous systems promise enhanced threat detection, terrorist groups are exploiting these tools for recruitment and attacks.

Apr 17, 2024

By George R. Shatzer, Joshua M. Arostegui

The US Army War College’s 2023 Conference on the People’s Liberation Army (PLA) was held February 22 to 24, 2023, at Carlisle Barracks, Pennsylvania. The conference, entitled “Decisive Decade: PRC Global Strategy and the PLA as Pacing Challenge,” featured presentations on PRC global and regional strategy, and the PLA’s enabling role by experts from a wide range of academic, media, and government agencies and organizations.

Apr 12, 2024

By Brennan Deveraux

With the Army’s renewed emphasis on professional writing, a disturbing narrative will likely

Apr 11, 2024

US defense analysts are overdue for a fundamental reassessment of the strategic factors that would shape a future Sino-American war. The United States may lower the overall risk of sparking a war between Washington and Beijing by more formally committing advanced US capabilities in intelligence collection and targeting, long-range fires, and theater air and missile defense to Japan and South Korea and by initiating bilateral planning to introduce such capabilities in Taiwan in the future. The US defense community still lacks a broad and integrated national strategy for successfully managing the rivalry with China. A clear-eyed assessment of a possible United States-China war could lead to a national strategy.

Apr 11, 2024

By Dr. Jared M. McKinney, Dr. Peter Harris, Col. Rich D. Butler, Josh Arostegui

The likelihood China will attack Taiwan in the next decade is high and will continue to be so, unless Taipei and Washington take urgent steps to restore deterrence across the Taiwan Strait. This monograph introduces the concept of interlocking deterrents, explains why deterrents lose their potency with the passage of time, and provides concrete recommendations for how Taiwan ...